danielviglione
less than 1 minute ago
Asia Open: NZ GDP data spooks the Kiwi ►
Late in the NY session, traders were focused on NZD as GDP growth figures from NZ missed estimates. The official figure showed GDP growth slowed to 0.3%q/q for Q4, half of what economists were expecting, led primarily by a -2.5%q/q growth rate in the manufacturing industry and a 2.3%q/q decline in the Government Admin/Defence sector. In our opinion, this data provides more evidence to the RBNZ that the most prudent action they can take on monetary policy right now is to leave rates untouched, thus we expect the bank to keep the official cash rate at its current record-low 2.5%m for at least the rest of the year.
Traders of the Kiwi appear to agree with our sentiment. Following the data release in NZ NZD/USD took a hammering, with the pair slipping to as low as around 0.8095, before rising to settle into a tight trading range centred around 0.8120. This low should provide some support for the pair, but below this level we are looking for a break below the monthly low at around 0.8055 to suggest some more possible downside.
Attention in Asia is now focused on HSBC Chinese Flash PMI data for March due out at 13:30AEST. Whilst there are no official estimates available for the Chinese data there are rumours of a 50+ figure, which means we might see some selling pressure hit commodity currencies, namely AUD and NZD, if the figure prints in contraction territory (<50). In February, the HSBC reading came in at 49.6, which represented the third month in a row that the HSBC figure was in contraction territory, but the headline figure has been steadily rising off last year’s lows.
Late in the NY session, traders were focused on NZD as GDP growth figures from NZ missed estimates. The official figure showed GDP growth slowed to 0.3%q/q for Q4, half of what economists were expecting, led primarily by a -2.5%q/q growth rate in the manufacturing industry and a 2.3%q/q decline in the Government Admin/Defence sector. In our opinion, this data provides more evidence to the RBNZ that the most prudent action they can take on monetary policy right now is to leave rates untouched, thus we expect the bank to keep the official cash rate at its current record-low 2.5%m for at least the rest of the year.
Traders of the Kiwi appear to agree with our sentiment. Following the data release in NZ NZD/USD took a hammering, with the pair slipping to as low as around 0.8095, before rising to settle into a tight trading range centred around 0.8120. This low should provide some support for the pair, but below this level we are looking for a break below the monthly low at around 0.8055 to suggest some more possible downside.
Attention in Asia is now focused on HSBC Chinese Flash PMI data for March due out at 13:30AEST. Whilst there are no official estimates available for the Chinese data there are rumours of a 50+ figure, which means we might see some selling pressure hit commodity currencies, namely AUD and NZD, if the figure prints in contraction territory (<50). In February, the HSBC reading came in at 49.6, which represented the third month in a row that the HSBC figure was in contraction territory, but the headline figure has been steadily rising off last year’s lows.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario